Welcome back to the second issue of my new blog. Thank you to all of you who read the first one and I am glad you have come back for seconds. Hopefully I have some new readers here this week as well. And an extra special thank you to my older brother for being the only person to comment in last week’s post. Everyone, please do leave your reactions to my essays at the end. I want to read your thoughts on these topics as well. Feel free to bash my writing if that is how you feel or tell me it is the greatest thing you have ever read, or somewhere in between. Hope you are all enjoying your Memorial Day weekends. Now, on to the show…
1. The State Of College Athletics: What A Mess!
Let’s get the second edition of “O For 4” started with the issue that will most let me show my stubbornness. It is time for me to sound like the cranky, old man I so often am and let you know what side of the debate I am on. To be certain, it is the losing side by all indications. The acceleration of the changing landscape of the NCAA has become akin to advancements in science, where at first a development took place once in a century, then every few decades, then every few years, to now where it feels like every few days. And I do not like it. Not one bit.
I could go on and on making my case simply from the standpoint that change isn’t always good and argue that all the changes the NCAA has implemented, or been forced to implement, have not created a better product. In fact, I think it would be easy to argue that the changes have made it worse. The fans hate what the rule changes have resulted in, and complain about it incessantly. We are at a point with the transfer portal where it is no longer worth getting excited about reading that your school picked up a commitment on the recruiting trail as it feels like there is still a good chance that player will change his mind and reopen his recruitment to pick another school. I read a case recently where a player committed to a school, backed out when that school fired their head coach (totally valid reason to back out), then went to another school where he did early enrollment, participated in that school’s spring workouts and Spring Game, only to jump in the portal right after said Spring Game, and recommitted to the original school he had announced, who now has a new coach. For the fans, it’s exhausting, it’s annoying, and it’s repelling.
But it is not just from a fan-connection perspective that these changes are making college athletics worse. When players are selecting their school based on how much NIL money they will earn, as we have read plenty of stories where that has been the case, then they are not making that decision based on more important factors. Who your coach is, what system a team runs, and how you will fit into it, not to mention what other (i.e. academic) opportunities the school has for you, all need to be weighed into this decision. Having a landscape filled with young men and women going to programs where they are not a good fit will cause those programs to put out an inferior team incapable of competing as they would have been able to had the right players joined the team.
And players are not just making this decision when they are coming out of high school. No, with the relaxed transferring rules the NCAA has allowed, now players are switching schools repeatedly, often to receive a more lucrative deal. This means less continuation between seasons for these teams. It becomes nearly impossible for coaches to gain momentum and build on the successes or failures of a previous season. So again the product suffers.
All this contributes to the product at the next level, the pros, to not be as good. If college players are not getting developed as well as they were in yesteryear and are leaving situations where they have had to deal with adversity for greener pastures, then they are less prepared for life in a pro league, not to mention the adult world in general. Here is where I could really complain about the younger generations, but I will spare you all that grumbling.
I said I could go on and on about the product not being better as a result of all these changes. I won’t, though. Instead, I want to go on about how this has been the quintessential tale of someone just making things up as they go along, not having any semblance of a plan, and functioning purely in a reactionary manner to the effects of their previous not-thought-out actions. Seriously, how could anyone have any faith left in the NCAA? They have exuded a complete lack of leadership and vision in their ushering in of the new era of college sports. They clearly did not have a plan for regulating the allotment of NIL revenue to players, permitting the industry to devolve into a caste system based on access to wealthy alumni. There clearly was no thought given to the characteristics of Gen Z when they removed all the restrictions and implications to transferring, ignoring the fact that this current age demographic is known for being highly mobile and lacking loyalty to anyone other than themselves, traits that have resulted in coaches and programs being left in the dust by multiple players after each season (and sometimes even midseason). And even the realignment of conferences and the reconfiguration of determining a football national champion (bowl system became the BCS became the 4-team playoff became the 12-team playoff) has only sent the message to the student-athlete that money should be the determining factor in decision-making while also creating unnecessary travel burdens for the teams and its players, which in turn just leads to, again, a worse product on the field.
If you were to ask me to list one thing that the NCAA, and all of the decision-makers in college sports for that matter, have done to improve the competitions they oversee, I do not think I could give you an answer. It has been an incomprehensible level of incompetence. If it was up to me, if I were magically installed as president of the NCAA, I would undo many of the changes we have seen in the past decade or so. I would return the amateurism to the world of college athletics; student-athletes would not be paid like C-level executives. Accepting a scholarship to a university, which by the way is a very incredible gift to receive, would mean actually making a commitment, and choosing to switch programs would once again mean having to sit out a year; it’s about creating an understanding of obligation in our young men and women, not to mention helping to preserve the quality of the product being put out. And yeah, there would be ten teams in the Big Ten, and in football, the champion of that conference would face the winner of the ten-member Pac 10 in the Rose Bowl. Although I do enjoy that with just Washington State and Oregon State remaining in that soon-to-be-history conference, we can simply refer to it as 2PAC now. Quick tangent: 2Pac is the greatest rapper in history. I don’t see how my opinion on that could ever change.
Back to the NCAA, let me finally conclude this diatribe. I know it is just a matter of time before they make another change that will make me cringe. It will probably be expanding March Madness to 128 teams, and when that happens, I may stop filling out a bracket. Change for the sake of change seems to be their protocol, and it often feels like no thought goes into their decisions at all. They have only succeeded in making it hard to be a fan of college athletics. Gone are the days of young men and women playing for the name on the front of their jerseys. Gone are the days of playing your whole conference and having a schedule equal to all the other teams in it. Gone are the days of fans knowing they will get to watch a player develop for four years, with the exception of the absolute best going pro early. Those days were better than what we have now. And this stubborn man will always like the old way better.
2. The French Open: Rafael Nadal’s Last Stand?
I warned you I was likely to write about tennis at some point. The French Open, the second of the year’s Grand Slams, got underway on Sunday. Even if you are not a devout follower of tennis, you know that the red clay of Roland Garros is the domain of Rafael Nadal, the Spaniard who has won an incredible 14 titles in Paris, a record at any single Grand Slam, men or women. His overall record at the event is 112-3, the total wins also representing a single Slam record. Nadal won the French Open in 2022, the last time he entered. In 2023, he withdrew due to injury. Actually, he has missed most of the past two years with varying ailments. He had to miss the 2022 Wimbledon tournament, and has not played in a Grand Slam event since the 2023 Australian Open, where he only made it to the second round, something that could only occur if he was not at 100%.
Rafael Nadal joined the professional ranks in 2001, at the age of 14. Now, at age 37, the end is near. There have been ambiguous messages from Nadal himself as to when he will call it a career; he had previously said he expects to retire at the end of the 2024 season, but just two days before he was scheduled to play his first round game at what would be his last French Open appearance, he stated in a press conference that he could not say if this would 100% be his last time playing at the tournament he has owned for two decades, since first winning it in 2005. So, we really have no clue how this will play out.
Historically, when there has been a marquee name retiring from tennis, they will announce that their last event will be the U.S. Open, as it is the last of the calendar’s Grand Slams. Pete Sampras did that in 2002, winning in New York to claim his then-record 14th major on his way into retirement. The man he beat in that final, Andre Agassi, also tabbed the U.S. Open as his finale, retiring after his 2006 run ended in the third round. Serena Williams, the greatest woman to ever play the game, also saw her career end in the third round of the U.S. Open in a tribute-filled 2022 tournament.
Of course, there is no rule stating that the all-time greats have to use the U.S. Open as their goodbye. Roger Federer, Nadal’s biggest rival, used a doubles match (with Nadal as his partner) at the 2022 Laver Cup as his swan song; it felt like an exhibition match. His last tournament was Wimbledon in 2021, after which he underwent knee surgery and never felt like he regained the ability for another singles tournament. Tennis fans were deprived of knowing they were watching him in a final tournament. The Laver Cup match was going to be it, win or lose.
Maybe Rafael will play through this year’s U.S. Open like many of the game’s other greats. Maybe he comes back in 2025. Maybe this French Open will be it for him. Or maybe he does not want this to be how he says goodbye to tennis. He has, by his own admission, not been playing well in the clay court tune-up tournaments, having lost in the second, fourth, and second rounds in Barcelona, Madrid, and Rome, respectively. Perhaps his first-round pairing against fourth-seeded Alexander Zverev (Nadal’s inactivity has led to him to being a qualifier for this tournament and not protected from facing a seeded player in the first round), scheduled for 9 AM Eastern on Monday, and the potential of a first-round ouster had him thinking he may want to try again in 2025 when he has a chance to rebuild his ranking. Of course, that could backfire on him and he may fall victim to Father Time between now and then, and not even qualify a year from now.
Whatever happens, if Nadal plays out the rest of 2024 or even returns in 2025, the uncertainty of his future will mean that all eyes will be on any matches he plays in Paris over the next two weeks. The spectacle of a retirement, especially of someone on the Rushmore of their sport, often gets even more attention and adulation than a trophy presentation. Personally, I hope we get to see Nadal go on an improbable run and win the French for the 15th time. And then I hope he retires on the spot. That would be quite the way to go out.
That is what I want. It is not, however, what I am predicting. On the men’s side, #1 Novak Djokovic has also not looked impressive in his tune-ups. While It would be no surprise for him to step up his game, I think the youth movement in tennis will manage to knock him out at some point. There are three younger players looking to win their next Grand Slam trophy. #2 Janik Sinner and #5 Daniil Medvedev are seeking their second; # 3 Calros Alcaraz wants his third. I do think one of them will accomplish that. It is worth noting that Sinner and Alcaraz are both dealing with some physical ailments heading into the French Open. But still, if I had to predict a winner, I would go with Alcaraz.
On the women’s side, I am predicting a win for an American in Paris. If you are reading this, you may be assuming I am referring to Coco Gauff, who won her first Grand Slam at last year’s U.S. Open. Insert Lee Corso voice: “Not so fast!” The woman I am picking is Danielle Collins, who has already announced that she is retiring this year. Collins has won a couple titles already this year and is playing the best tennis of her career. She has never won a major, but her performance in 2024 makes me think she has as great a shot as anyone. She has saved her best for last.
Back to Nadal a moment, we will know how his first-round match versus Zverev goes less than 24 hours after I publish this week’s blog. I’ll probably write about it in next week’s edition.
3. NBA & NHL Playoffs: Coronations Of New Alphas?
If there is one thing I have learned in the short time I have been writing this blog (2 weeks), it is that you have to be quick to jump ship when a prediction is off and it is time to give another player/team their credit. I mentioned in last week’s post that there were a number of NBA Playoff series that I had gotten wrong. Among them were picking the LA Clippers over the Dallas Mavericks in the first round, and then the Oklahoma City Thunder over the Mavs in the second round. And then I went ahead and picked the Minnesota Timberwolves to beat Dallas in the West Finals. Well, so far it looks like I am going to be wrong picking against Dallas for the third straight round as they won the first two games of that series on the road and will be hosting games three and four on Sunday and Tuesday.
How is Dallas doing this? How is a team that won about 60% of their road games during the regular season (25-16) suddenly winning 75% of their road games (6-2) against playoff competition, including four straight? How is the team who was 20th in the league during the regular season in allowing 115.6 PPG managed to lock down and allow only 103.6 so far in these playoffs, good for fifth among playoff teams? It is worth noting that two of the teams above them have already been eliminated and a third, Minnesota, is on the ropes at the hands of these Mavs.
In this series, both games have been one possession games with Dallas winning by a combined four points over both contests. Dallas has also gone into the fourth quarter of both games with a deficit, just one point in game one and seven in game two. Evidently these are two very evenly matched teams. But one has made the plays at the end while the other has not. So what has been the difference? In a word, Luka.
In game one, Luka Doncic hit a mid-range jumper to put his team up four with about 50 seconds left. In game two, Dallas got the ball back down two and the shot clock off. They ran an isolation play for Luka, who did some shaking and baking at the top of the key, got his separation, and then drained a three-point shot that swished the net with three seconds remaining to put the Mavs up one. He has been the difference in these two games, coming through in the clutch when the games have been on the line.
This is what we ask from the best players. We want to see the ball in their hands in crunch time and we want to see them attempting the winning shots. Luka Doncic has stepped up to that challenge and has delivered for his team in two straight games. He is why they are just a couple of victories from making it to the NBA Finals. I know I said last week that I am predicting Boston to win the title. If Dallas holds on to advance, I may have to think twice about sticking with that. It just feels like we are witnessing the ascent of Luka Doncic to the NBA’s throne.
I want to talk about the NHL Playoffs here, too, as I have not given them any attention thus far. Now, to be certain, the NHL is a very different beast than the NBA. In the NBA, top players may play 40+ minutes in a 48 minute game; conversely, in the NHL, the most ice time anyone gets is about 25 minutes out of 60, but those are defenseman, while the top forwards may get around 20 minutes. These playing times may see a slight uptick come playoff times for each teams’ top players, but as a percentage of game time, it does not come close to what we see in the NBA, so the opportunities to influence the outcome are inherently less in hockey than they are in basketball.
The Edmonton Oilers’ Connor McDavid has led the NHL in points in three of the past four seasons. This past year, he finished third, but he did record 100 assists in the season making him just the fourth player in NHL history to accomplish that feat. If you are wondering who the others were, it was Bobby Orr, Mario Lemieux, and Wayne Gretzky (who accomplished it 11 times). Strangely enough, days after McDavid notched his 100th assist, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Nikita Kucherov matched him as he secured the scoring title for the season to dethrone McDavid in that competition.
Back to the fact that it is harder for the best players in the NHL to deliver wins, and thus championships, the fact that McDavid has been so dominant statistically yet has not seen the postseason success he has desired should tell you the importance of having multiple productive lines in the NHL; one or two great skaters will not get it done. In these NHL playoffs, also in the conference finals round, the Edmonton Oilers have the top four point-scorers and five of the top eight. That is why McDavid is closer to playing for the Stanley Cup than he has ever been before. But even though his teammates are stepping up and contributing on the scoreboard, McDavid’s influence still outweighs them all. In the five games Edmonton has lost in this year’s playoffs, McDavid has two assists and zero goals. On the other hand, in their nine wins, he has three goals and 18 assists. No goal was bigger than the double-overtime winner he scored in game one of these Western Conference Finals. He had gone without a goal in their previous five games.
I am cheering for Edmonton to go the distance. I would like to see a Canadian team win the Stanley Cup for the first time since the 1993 Montreal Canadiens. If it happens, Connor McDavid is going to have to put a few more biscuits in the basket. He will have to exert his influence on the outcome. If he does that, it will be the last box left for him to check off, and his claim of being the NHL’s best player would be solidified.
The NBA and NHL playoffs will wrap up around the same time, as the two leagues usually crown their champion within about a week of one another. This year, we could see a player in both leagues ascend to the throne by winning their first career championship and laying claim to the title of “league’s best player” at the same time. Doncic and McDavid, your thrones await… if you can claim them.
4. Quarterback Contracts: What’s Next After The Jared Goff Deal?
Let me start this one with a prediction for the future and then work backwards. Two years from now, in the offseason before the 2026 NFL season, a quarterback is going to sign a contract with an average value of $60 million a year (i.e. 4 years, $240 million). And no one is going to bat an eye.
Ahead of the 2022 season, Aaron Rodgers, then with Green Bay, signed the first contract with an average value of at least $50M. Two years later, there are six QBs making that amount; Rodgers is not in that group as he reworked his deal after joining the NY Jets in 2023. Those six are Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, and Joe Burrow. Burrow’s contract is for $55M/year. There may be as many as a handful of other QBs who could join that club either this offseason or next including Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott, and Tua Tagovailoa.
These numbers are no longer as astonishing as they once were. Thanks to the openness of reporting and the constant coverage of new media deals between the NFL and the various TV networks and streaming services, us fans have really gained a good understanding of how much money this machine brings in, even if most of us will never be able to even sniff that amount of cash. We see the success the NFL is experiencing, its position as the most lucrative sports league in the USA cemented (and second globally to only FIFA, which is obviously international), and we have come to an understanding that these salaries are going to continue to rise to unprecedented levels.
Now let’s move back to the present. As I said about myself in my intro last week, I am a devout Detroit Lions fan. As such, I spend a good amount of time reading about them. My go-to source is their SB Nation page, Pride of Detroit (full disclosure: I am a writer for a different SB Nation page). Beyond just reading the articles, I also enjoy reading the comments sections to hear what the fans are thinking. In the wake of Jared Goff’s new contract signed on May 16, there was obviously a ton of coverage on the matter. What I was not prepared for was the number of individuals, presumably Lions fans, who were commenting with their displeasure in it. Reactions ranged from those who believed it was simply too much money to those who wished that they did not extend him at all, hoping to have him show his value for one more year and sign him next offseason (or franchise tag him), to those who (and this is crazy) wanted the Lions to get rid of Goff and hand over the job to Hendon Hooker, the 2023 third-round pick who has not played a down in the NFL and was on the injured list most of his rookie season. Yes, there are crazy people in the world.
I would have been fine with the occasional outlier. And I can understand the concern that the $53M average value is excessive. But let me state my position: I have no objections to this deal. I think it is great. I think Jared Goff is worth being in the top five on the salary list (currently number two, but that could change by the time the 2024 season begins). I am glad the Lions locked him up and will have him for the foreseeable future. And I feel that way because I believe that Jared Goff is a top-five quarterback in the NFL right now.
Did you read that last line and sense a list coming up? Good job! You are getting one. To be certain, I think the task of selecting the top five quarterbacks is much tougher today than it was five and ten years ago. We had some absolute all-time greats a decade ago in Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, not to mention sure-fire hall-of-famers in Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, and Aaron Rodgers and you could argue one of Matt Ryan, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Stafford even deserved to be on the list. Five years ago, most of those names were still leading the league in stats, plus Mahomes had ascended to the upper echelon as well.
Today, the only thing certain is that the list begins with Patrick Mahomes. All those legends from five and ten years ago are gone, other than Stafford, but I personally would not put him in the top-five. There are a number of quarterbacks that have looked very good, borderline elite, for a season but have not shown the consistency desired. Lawrence, Hurts, and Burrow all fit that category. Josh Allen gets a lot of praise, but he has consistently been at or near the top in interceptions. He reminds me of Brett Favre in that cowboy gunslinger sense, but his common carelessness has hurt his team in moments, and that keeps him off my list.
There is the new blood. CJ Stroud in Houston had a remarkable rookie year in 2023. Was it a flash in the pan or will he be the real deal? Justin Herbert in San Diego Los Angeles has been consistent in his young career, but I feel like we are still waiting for him to take the next step. Brock Purdy, two years removed from being Mr. Irrelevant, has lifted San Francisco into a perennial contender with his reliable play, even if he is not creating highlight reel material. And then there is Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, a two-time MVP who just needs to get it done in the playoffs.
With Patrick Mahomes and the now-retired Tom Brady having won five of the last six Super Bowls (Stafford won the other), there is definitely room for someone to claim being the next best quarterback. For my money, Jared Goff has as good a claim as anyone. He has led one franchise to a Super Bowl appearance, though to be fair he was very unimpressive in that game. He has since led another franchise, none other than the eternally cursed Detroit Lions, to a conference championship game – a game that they should have won and none of the blame for that loss falls on Goff’s shoulders. Statistically, he has been top five in TDs each of the past two seasons and top six in yards, including second this past season. He has also kept his turnovers down over that stretch, totalling just 19 interceptions over the 2022 and ‘23 seasons. Josh Allen had 18 last year alone.
So, yeah, I’m putting Goff way up there. I think he is elite. I think he is trustworthy, smart, and resilient. I think he is a winner who would help the fortunes of just about any team out there, Kansas City being the only definite exception. Here is my list of the top-five quarterbacks as we head into the 2024 season:
- Patrick Mahomes
- Jared Goff
- Lamar Jackson
- Brock Purdy
- Jalen Hurts
That’s my list and I’m sticking to it. Of that list, only Purdy will reach free agency by the 2026 offseason. He’d be a good bet to become the first Sixty-Million Dollar Man. But the fact is that it does not necessarily have to be someone on that list. The NFL will continue to pay more and more, so starting quarterbacks who earn a second contract from the team who drafted them will continue to see their salaries rise. And here’s a real bold take to wrap up this week: By 2030, some quarterback will get $70 Million.
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