Hello readers, welcome to the latest issue of O For 4. Thank you if you are a returning reader. In this week’s edition, I am talking about football, football, and more football. It’s week 2 for college and week 1 for the NFL. And I feel like a kid in a candy store. Let’s get to this week’s topics, and as always, please leave your comments at the end.
1. College Football Week 1 Overreactions: Whose Season Is Done? Whose Isn’t?
It was a great first weekend of the college football season. We saw a ton of blowouts by highly ranked teams, a couple of ranked teams caught in too-close-for-comfort contests (Oregon, Michigan), a pair of tough top-25 matchups that went to the road team (Notre Dame over Texas A&M, USC over LSU), and then there were a pair of teams that forgot the season began.
The first of these teams is Florida State, who has apparently not gotten the memo for two straight weeks. After being ranked #10 in the preseason poll, the Seminoles now find themselves 0-2 after a week zero loss in Ireland to Georgia Tech and then a home loss to Boston College. Naturally, they are unranked now. It is really tough to see this team turning around their season and being a factor in the ACC. See you next year.
The other team is Clemson, who were absolutely walloped by Georgia in Atlanta. The top ranked Bulldogs disposed of the Tigers 34-3. But I am here to argue the game was closer than the final score indicates. This game was 6-0 at the half and was still just a ten point game until late in the 3rd quarter. At that point, the wheels fell off for Clemson, and the Tigers players looked like they had lost the will to fight. But for close to three quarters, they were putting up a tough battle against a very good team. In my issue last week, I said Clemson would qualify for the College Football Playoff as the second team from the ACC to get in. I am going to stick with that prediction, for now, and say Clemson still makes it as an at-large bid. But they may only have room for one more loss, if that, the rest of the way.
One other prediction that I am feeling good-ish about is my selection of Boise State to be the representative of the Group of Five conferences. In week 1, the Broncos were in a shootout at Georgia Southern, but they came away with an 11-point win, 56-45. They need to shore up their defense, and fast as they go to Eugene in week 2 to take on the Oregon Ducks. But Boise may have one of the biggest weapons in college football in running back Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty was the scoring for the Broncos in week 1, rushing for 267 yards and six touchdowns. With their rushing attack, I expect this team to put up numbers and control games against anyone on their schedule. I do think they will lose to Oregon, but I think it will be close. And then they will win the rest of their games on the way to the playoff.
That’s it on week 1. Florida State is done, obviously. Clemson is not. And Boise State is going to make some noise.
2. NFL Season Starts With A Bang: MVP Candidates Are Off And Running.
As is the tradition, the (back-to-back) defending Super Bowl champions hosted the NFL’s opening game on a Thursday night. This year, the Kansas City Chiefs got the Baltimore Ravens to lead off the season, the team that earned the #1 seed in the AFC last year and who was the last team in the Chiefs path back to the Super Bowl. Oh, and also the team with last year’s MVP, Lamar Jackson. In fact, these two teams have four of the last six MVP awards as Jackson and Patrick Mahomes have each won it twice since the 2018 season (Aaron Rodgers won the other two years). Coming into this year, both of them were on the short list to win the league’s top individual honor.
The game ended up being a literal nailbiter as a final-play touchdown ended up being reversed when replay showed that the tip of Ravens wide receiver Isaiah Likely’s shoe touched the white in the back of the endzone, making him out of bounds. KC won by seven points, the same margin as their AFC Championship game last year. But the game did not feel that close until Baltimore’s late comeback; they were down ten with five minutes remaining. The Chiefs looked like the better team. While Baltimore and Lamar Jackson were struggling to get a rhythm going – they were held to ten points through three quarters – Kansas City was looking in midseason form.
Patrick Mahomes is still the best quarterback in the game and with his new weapon, rookie wide receiver Xavier Worthy, we can all expect him to have one of the best statistical years of his career. Basically, Mahomes is very much going to be in the conversation for the MVP award again, but I am not feeling it for Jackson this year, though it is still early.
All that said, there were a couple other quarterbacks who got the early start to their season, these ones on a Friday night in Brazil. Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers was one of the biggest winners of the 2023 season, turning a strong second half of the schedule in his first season as starter into one of the biggest contracts in the NFL. Unfortunately for him and his team, he suffered a leg injury in the final seconds of the game; we are still awaiting word on the severity, but slow motion replays do not give me belief that it was something minor.
The other QB in this game is one of the most impressive physical specimens to ever play the position. Philly’s leader, Jalen Hurts, can squat 600 pounds, and late in this game, when the contest was still up for grabs, that strength came into play and was instrumental in helping the Eagles secure the win. With just under four minutes to go and Philly in possession just past midfield with a two-point cushion and facing a 2nd & 8, Hurts took the snap, tried to find an open receiver, and then scrambled to his left. He was met by two Packers defenders about three yards short of the sticks. It did not matter. Jalen got low and continued to drive his legs and made it just far enough for the first down before being tackled. The impressive display even came with the commentator offering some advice to all of Hurts’ peers, “Quarterbacks, go squat 500 pounds.” The Eagles would go on to kick a field goal on the drive, eating up the clock to under 30 seconds to play, and the defense would preserve the win, including the play that took out Jordan Love.
While this was not Hurts’ best game statistically (he had two interceptions and two fumbles, one lost) and only 278 yards through the air, it is worth remembering that this was his first game without the now-retired Jason Kelce as his center. Kelce was the one who called all the protections for the offensive line, a duty which Hurts has now undertaken. In consideration of that, his performance in week 1 is given the benefit of the doubt. Hurts is a very smart player and I foresee him getting better at this new aspect of his job as the season goes on. So I am here to predict that Jalen Hurts is going to be the 2024 regular season MVP as he leads his Eagles to a division title and the #2 spot in the NFC.
3. AFC Playoff Prediction: Can Anyone Unseat The Chiefs?
Yep, it is time to get to my season predictions. Here are my selections for the playoff teams for the AFC.
The wild-card teams will be, in ranked order, the Buffalo Bills, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Cincinnati Bengals will win the AFC North and be the 4-seed.
The Miami Dolphins will win the AFC East and be the 3-seed.
The Houston Texans will win the AFC South and be the 2-seed.
And the Kansas City Chiefs will win the AFC West and be the 1-seed.
In the wild-card round, the Texans will beat the Jaguars, the Dolphins will beat the Ravens, and Bills will upset the Bengals on the road.
In the divisional round, the Chiefs will knock off the Bills and the Texans will defeat the Dolphins.
In the AFC championship game, the Chiefs will utilize the home-field advantage and stamp their ticket to a third consecutive Super Bowl.
4. NFC Playoff Prediction: Is A Super Bowl Rematch With The 49ers Inevitable?
You now know half of my Super Bowl LIX prediction. Now let’s get to how I see the NFC playing out.
The wild-card teams will be, in ranked order, the San Francisco 49ers, the Dallas Cowboys, and the Green Bay Packers (*if Jordan Love’s injury is major, then I am swapping GB out and putting in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers).
The Atlanta Falcons will win the NFC South and be the 4-seed.
The Seattle Seahawks will win the NFC West and be the 3-seed.
The Philadelphia Eagles will win the NFC East and be the 2-seed.
And the Detroit Lions will win the NFC North and be the 1-seed.
In the wild-card round, the 49ers will beat the Falcons, the Cowboys will knock out the Seahawks, and the Eagles will advance against the Packers.
In the divisional round, the Eagles will finish off the 49ers and the Lions will defeat the Cowboys.
In the NFC championship game, the Lions will prevail and make it to the first Super Bowl in franchise history.
I am predicting the final showdown of the NFL season will pit the dynasty that is the Kansas City Chiefs against the new “America’s Team” Detroit Lions. And in the end, I believe this is the year that the Lions finish the story, not just making it to their first Super Bowl but winning it.
This is The Year Of The Lion!
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