O For 4

Hello readers, welcome to the latest issue of O For 4.  And happy new year to everyone.  Thank you if you are a returning reader.  The beginning of the year is a busy time in the world of sports and I have some thoughts to get out.  Without further delay, let’s get to this week’s topics, and as always, please leave your comments at the end.

1. Updating My NBA Picks… Again

It is time again for me to reconsider my picks, or in other words, it is time for me to jinx another team.  My projections began with the New York Knicks in the offseason, then went to the Boston Celtics after the NY/MIN trade, and then to the Golden State Warriors who were atop the Western Conference standings about six weeks ago.  Since then, all the Warriors have done is slip to 9th in the conference.  As a result, I am abandoning that pick.  

Two nights ago, there was a massive game in the NBA between the two teams at the top of their respective conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Cleveland Cavaliers.  Last season, OKC earned the 1-seed in the west, but Cleveland was just the 4-seed, finishing 16 games back of Boston.  So clearly their performance this year is the bigger surprise.  And on Wednesday night, on their home court, Cleveland won the game.  

No, this is not going to be another example of predicting the team with the best record to win it all.  As we saw with the Thunder last year, getting the one-seed is nice, but it does not replace playoff experience.  Both Cleveland and Oklahoma City got knocked out in the second round last year, and rather easily in my opinion, so I am not sold on either of these clubs going the distance this year.

In the West, I don’t trust Denver, who are currently fourth, as they are not the cohesive unit they were when they won it all two years ago, and Golden State, who won it three years ago, looks lost right now.  Houston, currently second, is certainly too young.  I think my favorites to meet in the West Finals are Memphis (3rd) and Dallas (5th).  Last year, Dallas made it to the finals as the fifth seed; perhaps they will do it again this year.

In the East, it just feels like everyone is migrating toward .500 basketball.  And there is really only one team I trust to have the experience to deal with the ups and downs of the season, not to mention the rigors of the playoffs.  So for that reason, I am going to return to my earlier pick and say, again, that I believe Boston will repeat as champs.  And if they suddenly get on the struggle bus, then you should all blame me for that.

2. Tennis’ First Grand Slam Of The Year Is Here

On Monday, the Australian Open will get started Down Under.  In the men’s side, it finally feels like we have officially moved past the era of the Big Three, though we may be settling into a new Big Two era with Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz.  Those two split the four Slams last year and have combined for five of the past six.  And other than Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, the only other player with a Grand Slam in the past four years is Daniil Medvedev, though he is still looking for his second career Slam.  I do expect Sinner and Alcaraz, the 1- and 3-seeds in this upcoming Aussie Open, to be contenders in all of this year’s slams.  But I am not going with either of them to win this first slam.  Rather, I am predicting that the empty streak for U.S. men will end in a couple weeks.  No American man has won a Slam since Andy Roddick’s triumph at the U.S. Open in 2003.  22 years later, Taylor Fritz will put an end to that and win his first Major.  Fritz has been on a steady climb up the rankings (and the money winnings chart) for the past three years, and at 6’5” and 190 pounds, he has the physical gifts to persevere in a grueling, physical match, but he also has the shot-making to win plenty of quick points.  It is his time to break through.

On the women’s side, which is more susceptible to seeing new names breakthrough and for players to only win one major and never get back to the top, I think we are going to see some more dominance from the top of the rankings.  At this year’s Australian Open, the top three seeds are Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, and Coco Gauff, who have three, five, and one Grand Slam trophy, respectively.  I think the three of them will combine to sweep this year’s Majors.  Each of them at their best is superior to anyone else on tour, and I fully expect that at least one of them will reach top form in each Slam in 2025.  For this first one, I have to go with the hot hand.  Aryna Sabalenka has won the last two Aussie Opens, not to mention the most recent Slam, the U.S. Open.  I predict she will start this year how she ended the last by raising a Major trophy.

3. The New College Football Playoff Format

This is going to seem like a knee-jerk reaction, but I am ready for the CFP Committee to scrap the whole thing and start over.  The patterns we have seen in this first year of the expanded field probably could have been predicted.  In the first round, we saw all four higher-seeded teams, those playing with the benefit of a postseason game on their home field, win by double digits.  Two of those four teams had not played since the last weekend of November while the other two played the following weekend in conference championship games.  From those two weekends until the first round, these teams had either two or three weeks rest.  That means that these teams had an ample opportunity to shake off any fatigue and wear-and-tear from the long season, and when combining that with the home field against a team who, at least in the Committee’s eyes, is a lesser opponent, there really should be no surprises to the lack of competitive games seen in the first round.

From there, the four first-round winners, now riding high after picking up one win, went on to play one of the four teams who earned byes in a neutral site.  For the top four seeds, the break they had between winning their conference championship games to the quarterfinal round on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day (not to mention one game was delayed until January 2) was a full three and a half weeks.  That is way too long between games and predictably created a scenario where these teams became rusty.  The momentum they gained winning their conferences was long gone, and now playing against a team who had a chance to shake off the rust 10 or 11 (or 12 in one case) days earlier, it should come as no surprise that all four teams who earned the bye all went down in their quarterfinal match.  

It seems to me that the structure that the Committee came up with actually gives a disadvantage to the conference winners by giving them way too much time off until they enter the playoff field.  Again, I know this is just data from one year and the committee probably will not change things based on this, but this feels like more than a coincidence and it will not surprise me if these patterns repeat themselves next year.  In fact, I will use this year’s results to drive the bets I will place in next year’s playoffs.  So yeah, while I hope it gets changed for the sake of making it more competitive, my wallet hopes it stays the same.

I do have one more thought from this inaugural 12-team field.  Penn State Coach James Franklin made some comments ahead of his semifinal matchup against Notre Dame that he thinks that there needs to be more uniformity in college football scheduling, and one of his points was that every team should be in a conference so that every team at least has the potential to play in a conference championship game.  Clearly, he was addressing his opponent’s schedule, as Notre Dame is one of just three remaining independent teams.  For the Irish, the lack of a championship game means they do not have the ability to earn a first-round bye.  That said, judging by the results of this year, I would argue that may be a good thing.  But I do have to agree with Coach Franklin here.  All teams should have to blaze a similar path.  There needs to be some way for the rest of college football to pressure Notre Dame (and UConn and UMass) to finally join a conference.  The Big Ten is ready for its 19th team.

4. Getting The NFL Playoffs Started

All the way back in week 1 of this NFL season, I posted my predictions for how I thought the regular season and ensuing playoffs would unravel.  Looking back on the regular season, my picks were decent.  I successfully predicted four of the seven AFC playoff teams, including two division winners and the eventual 1-seed.  In the NFC, I got three of seven, but I did nail the 1- and 2-seeds.  So I successfully called half the playoff field and got half the division winners correct, as well as both 1-seeds.  Not too shabby.

Going back to my start-of-season predictions for the playoffs, I did predict that the two 1-seeds would advance to meet in this year’s Super Bowl where I had the Detroit Lions beating the Kansas City Chiefs.  Let’s see if I still see it playing out that way.  Here are my round-by-round predictions for the actual playoff field.

Wild Card:

Los Angeles Chargers over Houston Texans

Baltimore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers

Buffalo Bills over Denver Broncos

Los Angeles Rams over Minnesota Vikings

Washington Redskins over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Philadelphia Eagles over Green Bay Packers (I predicted this game preseason)

Divisional Round:

Kansas City Chiefs over Los Angeles Chargers

Baltimore Ravens over Buffalo Bills

Detroit Lions over Washington Redskins

Philadelphia Eagles over Los Angeles Rams

Conference Championship:

Kansas City over Baltimore

Detroit over Philadelphia

Yep, I am sticking with my initial Super Bowl matchup.  And as I did then, I still think the Lions will be giving Coach Dan Campbell a Gatorade Bath in New Orleans.  Nothing I have seen this season has given me a reason to change my mind.  I still don’t think any of the other AFC contenders can go into KC and win, and I don’t think any of the other NFC teams can outscore Detroit.  So when these two 1-seeds meet in the Super Bowl, I will stay with my heart and believe in this Lions squad.  

Enjoy the playoffs, everyone.  Especially if you are cheering for Detroit.